Around the CFL: Improvements up front a big reason for Als success
Football Betting Lines
11/15/2008 - Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - There's a big reason for the Montreal Alouettes' turnaround this season.
The Alouettes posted an 11-7 record this year to finish atop the East Division standings and earn the right to host the conference final. Last season, Montreal finished third with an 8-10 record and appeared to many to be headed in a downward spiral.
But the club, under the veteran leadership of quarterback Anthony Calvillo, returned among the league's contenders. Calvillo certainly played a part in that, finishing second in the CFL in passing with 5,633 yards and a league- leading 43 touchdowns.
However, the other consideration is this. After giving up a CFL-high 68 sacks last year, the Alouettes' offensive line surrendered a league-low 22 this season.
As a result, four Alouettes offensive linemen were named to the East Division All-Star team, with center Bryan Chiu and guard Scott Flory also being voted to the CFL All-Star squad this week. They were two of five Alouettes selected, joining Calvillo and receivers Ben Cahoon and Jamel Richardson.
Flory is also a finalist for the CFL's outstanding lineman award, the fourth time he has been nominated. Flory, though, is looking for his first victory.
INTERESTING PICKUP: The Montreal Alouettes made an interesting pick up heading into their East Division final showdown with the Edmonton Eskimos on Saturday at Olympic Stadium.
Montreal added Keith Williams, a defensive back from Florida A&M to its roster. What makes this noteworthy is that Williams was released by Edmonton earlier this season.
Williams was with Montreal in 2007, attending the club's training camp. He began the '08 campaign with the Eskimos before returning to the Alouettes once again.
ODDS AGAINST ALS: The odds aren't on the Montreal Alouettes side in their quest to reach the Grey Cup.
Montreal will host this year's CFL final, with the hometown Alouettes needing a win Saturday over Edmonton to be the East Division representative in the contest. But only eight times in the last 55 years has the host team qualified to play in the Grey Cup.
And the last team to win the Grey Cup as the host city was the B.C. Lions in '94 when they edged the Baltimore Stallions, 26-23, on Lui Passaglia's late field goal at B.C. Place.
WINDS OF CHANGE: The Winnipeg Blue Bombers fired heard coach Doug Berry this week after posting an 8-10 record and losing in the East Division semifinal to Edmonton.
But more changes are in store.
Not only will Winnipeg be looking for a new head coach, but to secure the right candidate the CFL club is prepared to dangle the dual post of coach and GM to that person. That's bad news for Brendan Taman, who is currently the Bombers GM and vice-president of football operations.
After Berry was fired, Taman admitted to reporters that he's well aware his job title will likely change heading into the 2009 season. Instead of being in charge of all football matters, he's going to be more of a director of player personnel for the Bombers.
The leading candidate for the Bombers' coach/GM post is Edmonton receivers coach Mike Kelly.
Kelly is a former Bombers offensive coordinator who held the same position with the XFL's Orlando Rage and has previous head coaching experience at Valdosta State. He also has spent time in the personnel departments of the NFL's Washington Redskins and Philadelphia Eagles.
Bombers president Lyle Bauer, a good friend of Kelly's, will spearhead the coaching search, with input from Taman.
PLAYOFF WOES: He led the Calgary Stampeders to first place in the West Division and the CFL's best regular season record at 13-5. He also set career highs for passing yards (5,094) and touchdowns (39) and is the Western nominee for the CFL's outstanding player award.
And yet it's easy to understand how there's a little apprehension surrounding Henry Burris heading into Calgary's West Division final game Saturday against B.C.
That's because given all of Burris' regular-season success, he hasn't won a playoff game for the Stampeders in three years.
Three years ago, Burris had two interceptions as Calgary lost a home playoff game to Edmonton. In 2006, he had four interceptions as the Stampeders dropped another home playoff contest to Saskatchewan.
Then last year in Regina, Burris fumbled twice and had an interception in a loss to the eventual Grey Cup-champion Roughriders.
But Burris arguably has his strongest supporting cast heading into Saturday's game. Calgary has the CFL's leading receiver in Ken-Yon Rambo, the league's top rusher in Joffrey Reynolds and its leading scorer in kicker Sandro DeAngelis.
Cleveland, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cleveland Cavaliers forward/center Ben Wallace underwent an MRI exam on Friday and the results came back negative, but he is still listed as questionable for Saturday's game against Utah because
<< Sens, Isles complete home-and-home on Long Island
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Ottawa Senators will try to break out of their scoring
slump tonight, as they visit the New York Islanders and Nassau Coliseum to
complete a home-and-home set with the club.
Ottawa has lost its last three games includi
<< Kings host Preds, shoot for fifth straight win
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The suddenly hot Los Angeles Kings will shoot for their
fifth straight victory tonight, when they welcome the Nashville Predators to
Staples Center.
The Kings have notched four wins in a row for the first time since Octobe
<< Avs, Oilers clash in Edmonton
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Colorado Avalanche will take aim at their third
straight victory when they visit the Edmonton Oilers for a Northwest Division
clash at Rexall Place.
The Avalanche snapped a five-game losing streak with last Saturday's
<< Slumping Stars visit Coyotes
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Dallas Stars will try to snap a three-game losing
streak and win for just the second time in seven games when they visit the
Phoenix Coyotes for tonight's Pacific Division matchup at Jobing.com Arena.
The Stars made it
Columbia, SC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - South Carolina guard Brandis Raley-Ross will miss 3-to-4 weeks with a left knee sprain suffered in Friday night's victory against Jacksonville State. Head coach Darrin Horn, in his first season on the jo
Nirat's eagle enough for Singapore Open lead >>
Singapore (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chapchai Nirat eagled the 11th hole Saturday and
moved atop the leaderboard during the suspended third round of the Singapore
Open.
Nirat is five-under on his round through 12 holes. He sits at nine-under pa
Dundee United's unbeaten run ends at hands of Killie >>
Kilmarnock, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Dundee United's 10-game unbeaten
streak came to an end on Saturday at Rugby Park as Kilmarnock handed the
visitors a 2-0 defeat.
Jamie Hamill converted from the penalty spot in first-half
Logano grabs pole for Nationwide race at Homestead >>
Homestead, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Joey Logano won the pole for Saturday's
Nationwide Series season-ending Ford 300 at the Homestead-Miami Speedway. The
No.20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota driver rounded the 1.5-mile oval in 31.962
seconds
Arsenal suffers another setback >>
London, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Arsenal fell nine points off the league
lead on Saturday as the Gunners suffered a 2-0 defeat to Aston Villa at the
Emirates Stadium.
Ashley Young missed a penalty kick in the 20th minute as V
MySportsbook.com is one of the most efficient and professional online sportsbook today. While some sportsbooks only excel during the busiest seasons, MySportsbook is an excellent choice for the player who wants year-round quality. From their baseball true dime line to their interactive wagering, MySportsbook makes sure their clients would miss them if they went elsewhere.
Players won’t find any novelties at this sportsbook. The site is clean and simple and most importantly, fast. Customer Service handles matters in an expedient manner and accounting does everything possible to assure players that they have full control of their funds. The online banking center is open 24/7 in which time Neteller payouts are processed.
Management’s background and understanding of sports gambling has helped make them pioneers in the online betting market. MySportsbook was the first betting site to offer sports wagering in the best form. Interactive wagering was first offered in 1997. Players who don’t stop wagering when the game begins consider this sportsbook a true asset.
Players who are looking for outstanding value, extensive wagering options and inexpensive payouts will appreciate what MySportsbook.com offers. Those who are looking for perks and high bonuses would be best suited in a sportsbook geared towards the regular player.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your sports betting needs.
How to bet pro football
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.